Unrealistic Optimism

Yesterday, I received an email that linked to 29 different op-ed articles, some by politically astute folks like E. J. Dionne, Robert Reich and Eugene Robinson. All of them suggested that if the Supremes rule the Affordable Care Act (ACA) unconstitutional, this opens up an opportunity to pass single payer health care legislation, since it is a better solution to many of the problems the ACA was intended to address, and it is clearly constitutional. Some of them referred to passage of single payer as “inevitable,” although, to be fair, some of them also called it a “long-term” solution to the health care crisis.

If you read my post on this week's events at the Supreme Court, you know that I'm seriously out of step with these political heavy hitters. We all enjoy reading optimistic articles, but as much as I hope they're right, I'm afraid these authors are more engaged in wishful thinking than the realistic prediction of future events.

Apparently MSNBC commentator Chris Hayes read some of these same op-eds. This morning, on Up with Chris Hayes, he asked Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Jackass from Rhode Island, if he could foresee any “plausible scenario” by which rejection of the ACA might lead to the passage of single payer. Whitehouse's answer was an unequivocal no. He pointed out that this week the House refused to pass even a seemingly non-controversial highway transportation bill that he said would have created three million jobs.

These optimistic-eds seem to overlook the campaign financing, lobbying and advertising power of the “corporate persons” that us sell health insurance. Not only is single payer rejected by 100% of the Elephants, it is opposed by President Obama and a majority of the Jackasses as well.

When a major health care reform initiative has failed in this country, it has taken a long time for someone to try again. It was almost 20 years between the failure of the Clintons' reform proposal and the passage of the ACA. As we're all learning, just because we have a serious problem in this country, that doesn't mean our government will try to solve it. Every year, 45,000 Americans lose their lives due to lack of or inadequate health insurance. Very few of these people contribute to political campaigns.  As Ezra Klein, one of those "optimists" who sees single-payer only as a distant possibility, states:

The key word here is “eventually.” This is a long, ugly process that ensures a very large uninsured population for decades. . . [I]n the decades between here and there, there will be a lot of unnecessary suffering and deaths among the uninsured. That's the real cost of losing this opportunity to insure 30 million people.  

If you're hoping the Supremes strike down the ACA, be careful what you wish for.