Reality Shows a Slight Gain

It's the first day of Spring in Pittsburgh, and a high of 80 degrees is predicted. Our magnolia tree is blooming a month ahead of schedule. Temperatures have been well above normal all winter—11.6 degrees so far this month. I would never cite any of this as evidence for global warming. This is weather, not climate. Yet for most Americans, this may be the most convincing evidence.

Photo by tumbleweed@yahoo.com

The sixth and latest National Survey of Public Opinion on Climate Change was conducted in December, 2011 by Christopher Borick of Muhlenberg College and Barry Rabe of the University of Michigan. It was a telephone survey with 887 respondents and a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

The good news is that belief in global warming seems to be on the rebound. In Fall 2008, 72% of Americans believed “there is solid evidence that the average temperature on Earth has been getting warmer.” This number dropped to 52% by Spring 2010. Since then, it has gradually increased and now stands at 62%. 26% say “no,” and 12% are “not sure.”

The survey finds the usual effect of political partisanship. (See table below.) The other three demographics they looked at—gender, race and education—had no effect. Yes, that's right, teachers, education has no effect!

	Earth Getting Warmer	Earth Not Getting Warmer	Not Sure
Democrats	78%	15%	7%
Republicans	47%	42%	11%
Independents	55%	30%	15%

Respondents who thought the Earth is getting warmer were asked the primary reason for their belief (out of nine possibilities that were suggested to them). It was a tie. 24% cited their personal experience of warmer temperatures, and another 24% said it was the presence of extreme or changing weather (floods, droughts, tornadoes, etc.) that convinced them. Therefore, almost half the respondents who believe climate change is real base their belief on the weather. Only 8% chose scientific research as their main reason for thinking the Earth is getting warmer.

The problem, of course, is that people are not distinguishing between weather and climate. Weather is far more variable. What randomness gives, it can also take away. Next year, when temperatures in the Northeast regress toward the mean—as they inevitably will—residents may again reduce their belief in global warming. (The authors point out that more people claim warm weather as evidence of climate change when their surveys are conducted in the Fall than in the Spring.) If we have to wait until a high percentage of Americans are convinced by the weather that global warming is real, we may fail to take action in time to save ourselves.

Finally, respondents were asked whether they thought “the media is (sic) overstating the evidence about global warming” and whether “scientists are overstating evidence about global warming for their own interests.” (Italics mine.) Not surprisingly, people who did not believe in global warming thought they were being lied to. 90% thought the media were overstating the evidence and 81% thought the scientists were.

I'm curious about the thinking that went into the wording of these two questions. Why are scientists presumed to have “an interest” in the outcome of global warming while the media are not? I wonder how much people think climate scientists are paid, whether they think scientists' salaries are contingent on finding evidence of global warming, and, if so, who is paying them this extra money. How does this compare to the incentive the media have for understating the evidence—namely, the millions of dollars they make from fossil fuel advertising?

The article does not report whether respondents attribute climate change to human activity. However, the authors promise a follow-up article looking at policy implications of the survey, so we may learn the answer to that question later.