Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Safety First

OK, folks, raise your hands. Who's in favor of teenage pregnancy? How about teenage abortion? Childbirth?

Although the rate is declining, each year 600,000 American teenagers become pregnant; 30% will become pregnant at least once before the age of 20. According to the National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, in 2010, births by teenage mothers cost the country $9.4 billion in health care, public assistance and lost income due to reduced educational attainment, to say nothing of the long-term public health and social costs to teenage mothers and their children.

Dr. Gina Secura and her colleagues at the Contraceptive CHOICE Project in St. Louis have published a case study of the effects of offering free long-term contraceptives to teenage girls. The participants were 1404 adolescents between 14 and 19 who were enrolled in the program between 2007 and 2011. They were recruited via referral from clinics, community flyers and word of mouth. To participate in the study, they had to be sexually active or say they were planning to be, and not want to become pregnant.

All participants received a standard counseling session in which the risks and benefits of alternative contraceptive methods were reviewed and questions answered. After making a choice, participants were provided with their chosen contraceptive option free of charge. Followup interviews were conducted by telephone at three months, six months and every six months thereafter for the next two or three years (depending on when they enrolled). They received a $10 gift card for each completed survey. The one, two and three year followup rates were 92%, 82% and 75%. Rates of pregnancy, birth and abortion were compared both to their age cohort in the general population and their sexually active age cohort (since enrollment was limited to those who were or planned to be sexually active). Here are the data, reported as the number of pregnancies, births and abortions per 1000 in the population.

CHOICE Project
U. S. Population
Sexually Active Teens
Pregnancy
34.0
57.4
158.5
Birth
19.4
34.4
94.0
Abortion
9.7
14.7
41.5

Comparing the CHOICE participants to sexually active teens in the general population—the more appropriate comparison group—shows that they became pregnant and gave birth at 21% the national average, and had abortions at 23% the national rate. The CHOICE Project reduced unwanted pregnancy more for older (18-19) than younger (14-17) girls, and more for African-American than White participants.

The project was effective primarily because the majority of participants—68.4% of the older and 77.5% of the younger girls—chose long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) methods, either the hormonal or non-hormonal IUD or the etonogestral implant, rather than birth control pills, rings, patches or injections. These methods don't require participants to remember to reuse them and have a close to zero failure rate. But fewer than 5% of teenagers in the general population use LARCs. The researchers report that most of their participants had never even heard of them.

The study doesn't separate the effects of counseling, the contraceptive method, or the fact that the contraceptives were free, and it's likely that all these factors played a role. Other limitations of the study include its less than 100% response rate, its reliance on self-report data about pregnancies, the possibility that the followups reminded some participants to use their contraceptives, and the requirement of parental consent for the 14 to 17-year-olds, who may have been at lower risk of pregnancy than those whose parents did not consent. These drawbacks may be balanced by the high percentage of African-American (60%) and poor teenagers in the CHOICE Project, who are at greater risk of unintended pregnancy than the general population.

Rarely do we have a chance to report a study that is so effective in solving an important social problem, and that provides such a vivid reminder of the superiority of prevention over remediation. The cost of these birth control methods varied, with the LARCs being more expensive—$400 to $1000 depending on the method and the individual. To this must be added the costs of recruitment, counseling and followup. All of this is a pittance compared to the medical and social costs of unwanted pregnancy. We have the technology; what we lack is the political will.

In theory, the Affordable Care Act requires insurance companies to cover all forms of contraception with no co-pay, but there is no reason for insurance companies to publicize this option.  And there are other problems:
  • Doctors probably don't follow as good a script as the CHOICE Project counselors, and are not as aggressive in recruitment and followup. In general, doctors get paid less for time spent talking to patients than other activities.
  • Teenagers, who are usually covered by their parents' insurance, may not seek contraceptives because the visit will show up on their parents' statements.
  • According to the National Health Interview Survey, 18.4% of Americans aged 18-64 were uninsured during the first three months of 2014. Girls from uninsured families are probably at greater risk of unwanted pregnancy than those whose families are insured.
The Secura study argues strongly for a single-payer health care system, not only to guarantee that everyone is covered, but also because government can prescribe a uniform set of procedures to be followed by doctors when discussing birth control with teenagers.

Newspaper articles about the Secura study mention anticipated resistance from conservatives who believe that providing teenagers with contraceptives encourages sexual activity. But these articles fail to mention that research doesn't support the claim that education about contraceptives encourages teenagers to have sex. (That would be rude.) In fact, the reverse is true. Comprehensive sex education is associated with delayed or reduced sexual activity.

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Saturday, October 18, 2014

"Fetch!"

The Willie Horton ad used by George H. W. Bush in his 1988 presidential campaign is considered to be one of the most effective political ads in U.S. history. It's also the prototype for the use of symbolic racism in political campaigns. Brad Ashford is a Democrat running for Congress in Nebraska's 2nd District. The National Republican Campaign Committee is spending $170,000 to run the following TV spot in support of his opponent, incumbent Lee Terry.


The ad is technically correct. Nikko Jenkins was released from prison under a Nebraska law that allows early release for good behavior, and went on to murder four people. Ashford supported this law while a member of the state legislature--as, presumably, a majority of Nebraska politicians did.

To call this an example of "dog whistle politics" may be to credit it with more subtlety than it actually shows.

By the way, the U.S. held 2.23 million people in prisons and jails in 2012, seven times the number in 1972, and by far the highest rate of imprisonment in the world. It will be difficult to reduce these numbers if politicians who vote for prison term reductions are held responsible for any recidivism that results.

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Dog Whistle Politics

Another Dog Whistle

Voter ID and Race, Part 2

In Part 1, I presented evidence that racially prejudiced individuals are more likely to support voter ID laws. Please read it before continuing.

Of course, public opinion does not automatically translate in social policy. In 2012, Bentele and O'Brien published a study in which they used multiple regression to examine what state-level variables were most strongly associated with both the proposal and passage of voter ID laws. The following variables predicted proposal and passage of restrictive legislation:
  • Republicans controlled both houses of the legislature and the governorship. 83% of voting restrictions were passed by Republican-controlled legislatures.
  • The state had become increasingly competitive in the last presidential election. Note that passage of voter ID laws required both increased competitiveness and Republican control. Those states that had become more competitive but had Democrats in control were less likely to pass voter ID laws.
  • The state had a higher proprtion of African-American and Latino residents, and minority and low income turnout had increased in the last presidential election.
  • There were more allegations of voter fraud. This variable had less impact than the other three. Note also that very few allegations of voter fraud have been substantiated.
Their study is entitled “Jim Crow 2.0.”

What about the individual legislators who vote for voter ID laws? Earlier this year, Mendez and Grose reported an experiment in which 1871 state legislators from 14 states with relatively high Latino populations received an e-mail from an apparent constituent asking whether a driver's license was required in order to vote. The legislators were randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups. The e-mail either came from an Anglo (Jacob Smith) or a Latino (Santiago Rodriguez) man, and was written either in English or Spanish. The dependent measure was whether or not the legislator replied. Here are the results:

Supports Voter ID
Does Not Support Voter ID
Anglo Name/English
45.0%
50.3%
Latino Name/English
27.5%
43.4%
Anglo Name/Spanish
10.1%
12.5%
Latino Name/Spanish
1.1%
11.7%

The results are clearest with the English-language e-mail. Those who supported voter ID were 17.5% more likely to respond to the Anglo constituent, while those who did not support voter ID were 6.9% more likely to respond to the Anglo constituent. Response rates were depressed considerably when the e-mail was in Spanish, but the same pattern was obtained. Supporters of voter ID were more likely to discriminate against Latino constituents.

Did the legislators themselves decide whether or not to answer the e-mail, or was it a staff member? It probably doesn't matter, since legislators hire like-minded staff members.

The authors claim that the experiment shows discriminatory intent on the part of legislators who supported voter ID. It could be argued that Republican legislators cast their vote for partisan reasons, and the fact that they also happened to be prejudiced was coincidental. However, not all Republicans supported voter ID, and further analysis showed that those Republicans who voted in favor of voter ID were more likely to discriminate against the Latino constituent than those Republicans who voted against it. (No Democrats in the entire sample supported voter ID laws.)

I'm not suggesting that prejudice and political partisanship are separate alternative explanations for support for voter suppression, either among legislators or the general public. It is likely that Republicans support these laws both because they harbor racial resentment and because the laws are advantageous to their party. In fact, in the last six years, attitudes toward a variety of political issues, such as health care, have become more strongly correlated with racial attitudes. The Republican Party has gradually evolved into an unabashedly racist party, much like the neo-Nazi parties of Europe.

I woke up yesterday morning to the following headline: “GOP calls for travel ban for West Africa over Ebola.” Will Republican Congresspeople be willing to support adequate financial aid for Ebola-stricken countries, or will they use fiscal austerity as an excuse to throw West African Black people under the bus?

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Voter ID and Race, Part 1

With the election coming up in two weeks, voter ID laws are back in the news. The Supreme Court has accepted or rejected state voter suppression laws in a seemingly random pattern, without explaining their rationale. In news stories about voter ID, the corporate media typically demonstrate false balancing. They fail to examine Republican claims that voter impersonation is a problem. (It is not.) They report but don't evaluate the Democrats' argument that voter ID laws suppress turnout among key Democratic constituencies, such as the poor, minorities, and college students. (There is evidence to support this claim.) While the media sometimes imply that these laws are politically motivated, new evidence suggests that they may also be motivated by racial prejudice. These studies confirm every bad thing you suspected about voter ID laws.

In a new study, David Wilson and his colleagues at the University of Delaware's Center for Political Communication (CPC) used cognitive priming to test the prejudice hypothesis. Their experiment was embedded in the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, managed by computer by YouGov/Polimetrix. They had 1436 US adult respondents, 1100 of whom were White. The White participants were randomly assigned to one of three versions of a question asking them whether they favor or oppose voter ID laws. For one-third of the respondents, the question was accompanied by a photo of a White voter and poll worker. For another third, the voter and poll worker were African-American. The remainder of the participants were not shown any image. The photos and the wording of the question are shown in the results table below.


Support for voter ID laws was quite high. Most importantly, when given the Black prime, a reminder of the fact that African-Americans vote, the White respondents were more in favor of voter ID laws than when given the White prime or no prime at all. The fact that the race of the prime was manipulated in a true experiment suggests that race plays a causal role in attitudes toward voter ID.

These results are consistent with an earlier correlational study by Wilson and Brewer. This was a 2012 telephone survey of 906 adult Americans conducted by the CPC. Particpants were asked their party affiliation (Democrat, Republican or Independent) and their political ideology (liberal, moderate or conservative). White respondents were also given a three item measure of racial resentment similar to the Symbolic Racism Scale:
  • I resent any special considerations that African Americans receive because it's unfair to other Americans.
  • Special considerations for African Americans place me at an unfair disadvantage because I have done nothing to harm them.
  • African Americans bring up race only when they need to make an excuse for their failure.

As indicated in the chart, Republicans and conservatives supported voter ID laws more than Democrats and liberals. There was also a significant correlation between racial resentment and support for voter ID. Racial resentment was higher among Republicans and conservatives than Democrats and liberals, with Independents and moderates in the middle. However, racial resentment still had a significant effect on attitudes toward voter ID laws even when controlling for political partisanship, ideology and several other demographic variables. Interestingly, racial resentment had a greater effect on the attitudes of Democrats and liberals, since Republicans and conservatives overwhelmingly support voter ID laws regardless of how much racial resentment they express.

Of course, public opinion does not automatically translate in social policy. Please see Part 2 of this post.

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