Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Situation Alarming--But Not Serious

It's sometimes said that liberals are concerned about violence in the mass media but not sexuality, while conservatives are concerned about sexuality but not violence. If so, then a new study by social psychologist Brad Bushman and his colleagues suggests that the Motion Picture Association of America's (MPAA) rating system is a system of conservatives, by conservatives, and for conservatives.

The PG-13 rating was introduced in 1984 to solve a financial problem for the film industry: Too many popular films were being rated R, and an R rating meant that children under 17 could not attend unless accompanied by a parent or guardian. According to the MPAA, a PG-13 film “may go beyong the PG rating in theme, violence, nudity, sensuality, language, adult activities or other elements, but does not reach the restricted R category.” With respect to violence, they say, “There may be depictions of violence in a PG-13 movie, but generally not both realistic and extreme or persistent violence.” So, how's it going?

First, the methodology. Bushman drew up a list of the 30 top-grossing films of each year from 1950 to 2012 (1890 films), from which they randomly selected half, or 945 films. Trained coders watched the films and identified violent sequences, defined as “physical acts where the aggressor makes or attempts to make some physical contact with the intention of causing injury or death.” This definition excludes natural disasters, accidents and sports injuries. A sequence refers to the continuous action of a character, regardless of the number of discrete acts in the sequence. This solves an important practical problem, because it is not necessary to count the exact number of violent acts, i.e., punches, gunshots, which is a major source of unreliability in measuring violence. Using this approach, they achieved a reliability of α = .80, which is pretty good.

(I have very few questions about this approach, but one problem that concerns me is the scoring of scenes with large numbers of participants, such as battle scenes. Since there is one violent sequence for each character, how do you measure the number of participants? And how do you prevent such scenes from skewing the data?)

Next, they divided the films into 5-minute segments. The number of violent sequences in each segment was counted, and each film was given a score representing the rate of violent sequences per hour. In case you're wondering, 94% of all films between 1950 and 2012 had at least one violent sequence.

Bushman also counted the number of sequences involving guns, a gun being defined as “a weapon that can be carried with one or both hands that fires a bullet or energy beam with the intention of harming or killing a living target.” Hunting and target shooting were excluded. The reliability in scoring these sequences was even better (α = .91). A violent scene involving a weapon is less ambiguous than other forms of violence.

For purposes of analysis, films after 1984 were divided by rating into three categories: G and PG, PG-13 and R. G and PG were combined because there were fewer films with these ratings among the box office hits.

First, Bushman looked at the overall trend from 1950 to 2012. Not surprisingly, there was an increase. The level of violence more than doubled. The rate of increase was not simply linear, but gradually accelerated over the 63-year period.

Then they looked at gun violence during the period from 1984 to the present. Again, there was an increase, but there were important differences by rating. The G- and PG-rated films averaged 1.26 gun sequences per hour, and the overall rate declined slightly. The R-rated films averaged 2.15 sequences per hour and the rate did not change. However, violence in PG-13 films increased significantly, more than tripling over the 29 years. It started at near-zero, but accelerated sharply in recent years. From 2009-2012 the rate of gun violence was higher in PG-13-rated films than in R-rated films, flatly contradicting the MPAA guidelines.

The study does not report any measures of nudity or sexuality in films, but one of the co-authors, Daniel Romer, said that they measured sexuality, and it is much more likely to get an R rating than violence. I presume these results will appear in a future publication.

The relationship between filmed and televised violence and aggressive behavior is one of the strongest findings in social science, replicated in hundreds of experimental and correlational studies. The American Psychological Association and several other professional organizations have issued position papers highlighting these findings and recommending public policy changes. When you statistically combine the results of these studies in a meta-analysis, the relationship between filmed violence and aggressive behavior turns out to be almost as strong as that between smoking and lung cancer, and higher than many other statistical relationships that society takes very seriously, i.e., exposure to lead and IQ, homework and academic achievement. Exposure to media violence also makes participants less likely to help a person in need.

Daniel Craig as the PG-13-rated James Bond
Gun violence is a particular concern due to the weapons effect. Experiments show that the mere presence of a weapon—or a picture of a weapon—in the environment increases aggressive behavior in both angry and non-angry participants, which is probably why the presence of a gun in the home increases homicides.

While preparing this blog entry, I read at least a dozen reports about Bushman's study in the corporate media. Sadly, most of them contained false balancing (such as this one and this one). That is, they “balanced” Bushman's findings with comments from skeptics who dismissed the idea that violence in films might influence real-world aggressive behavior. (Science Daily was a notable exception.) The most common argument was that homicides have declined in this country in recent years, even as filmed violence has increased. This reasoning is, of course, completely fallacious, since there are many other variables that influence the homicide rate.

False balancing creates the mistaken impression that “experts disagree” over whether gun violence in movies really matters. Considering the popularity of violent films and television shows, this may be exactly what their audience wants to hear. Bushman has recently written an article suggesting several ways people rationalize away these findings. It is also worth noting that most of these news organizations are owned by larger media corporations that profit from the sale of filmed and televised violence. Bushman and Anderson have found that as the findings linking media violence and agression have gotten stronger, the news media have become more assertive in dismissing them.

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