Friday, November 15, 2013

Public Getting Warmer

Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), co-chairs of the Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change, released some surprising new public opinion data earlier this week. The data were prepared by social psychologist Jon Krosnick of Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment. Krosnick did a secondary analysis of 21 random-digit telephone surveys and internet surveys conducted, mostly by Stanford, between 2006 and 2013, with a total sample size of almost 20,000 respondents. Krosnick's mathematical model looked at changes over time, and the data he presented are his best estimate of public opinion today.

The results show that there is broad consensus among the American public that climate change is happening and that government should do something about it. Here are the percentages in each state who believe global warming is happening.


The overwhelming majority agree, not only in liberal states like New York (84%) and California (82%), but also in conservative states like Mississippi (82%) and Texas (84%). At least 75% of residents in every state surveyed believe in the existence of climate change. (There were a couple of states for which Krosnick lacked enough data to make a reliable estimate.) Sixty-five percent or more in every state believe that global warming is caused by humans, and 58% or more believe that it poses a serious problem for the United States. Krosnick believes that personal experience with hot weather is primarily responsible for these opinion changes. 

There was only slightly less agreement on whether the U. S. government should take action to address climate change. In only four sparsely populated Western states (ID, MT, NV, UT) did the majority not agree that the government should do more. Here are the percentages by state who believe government should limit greenhouse gas emissions from U. S. businesses.


Similar majorities favor limiting emissions of greenhouse gases from power plants, tax breaks to produce renewable energy, and a cap-and-trade system to limit greenhouse gas production. You can go to this site to check out the maps for all the questions that were reported. If you would like to take a closer look at Pennsylvania's results, they are here.

Where did the public draw the line? In only five states did bare majorities endorse tax breaks for nuclear power. And in no state did a near-majority endorse consumption taxes on gasoline or electricity, or government support for all-electric cars.

These data are not new, but they seem to be sharply at odds with previous statements about American public opinion on climate change made by politicians and the corporate media. The consistency across states is particularly surprising. Here is Krosnick's take on how American public opinion is represented politically.

I have often heard legislators in Washington express the belief that there is considerable variation in opinions about global warming across parts of the country, and that most of the people in their state or district are skeptical about global warming. When I ask about the polling they have done that led them to this belief, I have routinely been told that they had not done polling and, instead, base their impressions on phone calls, emails and conversations with and from constituents on the issue. Our findings suggest that the balance of those direct communications from constituents to elected representatives may have created a misimpression of the public's opinions on the issue.

My guess is that Krosnick is trying to be diplomatic. This is not the first time politicians have been show to misperceive voter attitudes. Not only do Congresspeople not hear from a random sample of constituents, the ones they do hear from are primarily large campaign contributors.

Now that these data are available to Congress, we will have yet another opportunity to observe whether the American political system is responsive to public opinion. Would you like to estimate the chances of these surveys having an impact?

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