Letters, . . . We Get Letters

When it comes to persuading the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette to publish my letters, I'm batting about .050. My one success, almost ten years ago, was a note about music. Of course, newspapers get many letters, and it's their right to choose which ones to publish. Ordinarily, I wouldn't bore you by griping about their decisions. However, I've managed to persuade myself that my latest experience may be of interest to other letter writers, so I'm going to risk playing the fool.

My story begins on December 8, when the P-G published Molly Rush's letter advocating single payer health care. This was followed on December 16 by a reply from Jim Roth—a pharmaceutical salesperson(!)—implying that single-payer is too costly and denies health care to some citizens. If you're going to continue, you should stop and read Mr. Roth's letter.

The next day, I wrote the following:

Mr. Roth notes that all countries with single-payer finance it with a value added tax. However, the type of tax used to fund health care is irrelevant. The important point is that single payer costs those countries considerably less than our complex system of public and private insurance. According to a 2013 report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the US currently spends on average $8,508 per person each year on health care, compared to an OECD average of $3,322. Yet the US is 26^th out of 40 OECD countries in life expectancy. The amount Americans spend on health care due to the combined burden of taxes, insurance and out-of-pocket costs would be greatly reduced under single-payer.

Mr. Roth claims that people in single-payer countries have longer wait times for elective surgery and are sometimes denied such care. This depends on the country and what you consider “elective surgery.” US insurance companies also refuse to cover some elective procedures. However, if these were serious problems, you would expect residents of single-payer countries to be dissatisfied with their country's health care system. A 2013 survey by the Commonwealth Fund compared consumer satisfaction in the US to nine European countries and Canada, all with single-payer. Americans were by far the most dissatisfied,with 75% saying the system needs fundamental changes or should be completely rebuilt.

Finally, Mr. Roth suggests that we could lower health insurance costs by allowing it to be sold across state lines. It is true that if some states were to deregulate health insurance and if residents of any state were allowed to buy that product, premiums might come down. But those people would be buying insurance with little value should they become seriously ill. The Affordable Care Act is intended to prevent exploitation of consumers by establishing a baseline definition of adequate health insurance.

Of course, the primary purpose of single-payer is not just to save money, but to save the lives of some of the millions of Americans who are currently uninsured.

On December 29, the P-G published two replies to Mr. Roth. Both offered primarily anecdotal evidence suggesting that at least one family—the author's—had lived in a single-payer country and was satisfied with their health care system. The main difference between them is that the first referred to the British system and the second the Dutch. While both were well-written and persuasive, I thought they were redundant, and might have been better supplemented by my data referring to larger numbers of people and countries.

It's possible my letter was rejected because it is poorly written or exceeds their 250-word limit. However, Mr. Roth's letter, at 318 words, also breaks this rule, as do many others they publish. They could easily have edited my letter. Clearly, exceeding the word limit was a mistake. In retrospect, I should have dropped the third paragraph.

My hypothesis, based on this and other previous experiences, is that my letter was rejected because it contained too much data. Imagine an experiment in which parallel letters to the editor are sent to a random sample of newspapers. Both letters would make exactly the same points, but one would support each point with research, while the other would support them with anecdotes or merely claim that these were the author's personal opinions. My guess is that fewer of the data-driven letters would be published.

I have two possible, though somewhat inconsistent, explanations for my hypothesis. The first assumes that the editors wanted to present the single payer argument sympathetically. It's based on a common cognitive error known as the base-rate fallacy. People find anecdotal evidence more persuasive that statistical base rates, even though the base rates summarize data from larger, more representative samples. The people who made the decision may have found the two letters they published to be more persuasive than mine.

My second explanation makes the reasonable assumption that the gatekeepers at the P-G are opposed to single-payer. If so, they may assume that my inclusion of data makes the letter too persuasive. That is, they may be willing to acknowledge that there are some Pittsburghers who favor single-payer, but it may be unrealistic to expect them to publish statistics suggesting that the arguments of single-payer advocates are factually correct.

I hope I'm wrong. I really want to encourage the use of research evidence to change the health care system, and society in general, for the better. If this strategy is counterproductive, that's genuinely disturbing.

You may also be interested in reading:

Death By Anecdote, Part 1

Are You Feeling Lonely?