My Enemy's Enemy

The headline at the top of the front page of this morning's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said, “Romney booed before NAACP.” His speech was described as “a blunt pitch,” and as “offering tough policy prescriptions that are unpopular with [African-Americans].” You've probably seen this video of Romney being booed on the nightly newscasts. What's going on?

Although the June polls show substantial drops in support for Obama among almost all demographic groups, he still has a huge lead among African-Americans. It's unlikely that Romney hoped to win many converts among those attending yesterday's NAACP convention. The real target of Romney's speech was the general public who read and watched yesterday's news.

In 1946, Fritz Heider, one of the pioneers of social psychology, proposed a theory of cognitive balance. He pointed out that people prefer both their interpersonal relationships and their cognitive structures to be in a state of balance, or consistency, with one another. We expect to like and dislike the same people as our friends, and to share their positive and negative attitudes. To see how this works in interpersonal relations, consider a three-person social network consisting of Alice, Betty and Carol. If Alice likes Betty, Alice likes Carol, and Betty likes Carol, the system is in balance.

A + B, A + C, B + C

It is also balanced if Alice likes Betty and dislikes Carol, and Betty also dislikes Carol.

A + B, A – C, B – C.

On the other hand, the network is unbalanced if Alice likes Betty and Carol, but Betty dislikes Carol; or if all three of them dislike one another.

A + B, A + C, B – C; and A – B, A – C, B – C

A simple mathematical rule for determining balance is to multiply the signs of the relationships. If the product is positive, the system is balanced [(+) (–) (–) = +], and if it is negative, the system is unbalanced [(+)(+)(–) = –]. Systems that are unbalanced are unstable, and there is cognitive pressure to balance them by changing one of the three relationships.

The system also makes predictions about new and developing relationships. For example, suppose Alice and Betty have a mutual relationship, Alice has an attitude toward Carol, but Betty and Carol are unacquainted. If Alice and Betty are friends and Alice dislikes Carol, Betty can balance the system by disliking Carol. Among the three other possibilities is this one: If Alice and Betty dislike one another and Alice dislikes Carol, there is a tendency for Betty and Carol to be attracted to one another. This latter principle is illustrated by the saying “my enemy's enemy is my friend.” The U. S. and the Soviet Union were allies during World War II not because we liked Communism or Stalin, but because the Soviets were also fighting against Nazi Germany.

This may shed some light on Romney's motive for attending the NAACP convention and going out of his way to antagonize those in attendance—including referring to the Affordable Care Act as “Obamacare,” which many of Obama's supporters find insulting. I suggest he went there expecting and hoping to be booed, knowing that the corporate media would act as a megaphone for any rude treatment he received.

There are many Republicans and Independents who are unenthusiastic about Romney. Tea Party members, for example, probably would have preferred a different candidate. Many of these folks also have strong attitudes toward African-Americans, and they aren't very pretty. A University of Washington survey finds that Tea Party membership predicts a 25% increase in racial resentment, even after controlling for conservatism and Republican partisanship—which are both also predictive of racial resentment. If black people are disliked (my enemy), and if black people booed Romney (my enemy's enemy), some of these undecided folks may have found a new friend. Of course, yesterday's events might also have energized members of the Republican base who were already committed to Romney.

In a Fox News interview later in the day, Romney indicated that the boos he received were not a surprise. “We expected that, of course,” he said. The NAACP didn't let him down. Take a look at his facial expression as he was being booed.