The Revolt of the Nones, Part 1

A couple of years ago, a neighbor and I chatted about the weather while walking our dogs. The topic of climate change came up. He said he agreed with his minister, who had told him that global warming was nonsense. After I began to tick off some of the evidence, he reversed direction and said he welcomed extreme climate change, since it would bring about the “end times.” He and his co-religionists would ascend to heaven, where it is presumably air conditioned. Of course, this is just an anecdote, and it could be misleading, but in this case it's not. I thought about it when I read some recent surveys reporting the rise of the “nones.”

The General Social Survey (GSS) is pretty much the gold standard in American survey research. Not only is the sample representative, but they have a response rate of 70% and 83% of their interviews are conducted in person. The interviews average 90 minutes apiece and respondents are paid $20. Since 1972, the GSS has been asking: “What is your religious preference? Is it Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, some other religion, or no religion?” The percentage answering no religion has gone from 5% in 1972 to 20% in 2012 (the most recent survey). Here's the trend line. 

Since 1990, those preferring no religion have been increasing by .6% per year. These data are consistent with the results of other national surveys.

So the priests are losing ground to the nones. Does this mean the nones are discarding their old habits? Not exactly. Rather than individuals changing their attitudes, we're seeing a demographic transition, as older, more religious people die and are replaced by younger, less religious folks. Here's the 2012 data sliced by age. In the 18-30 age group, also known as the “Millennials,” more people are choosing the secular option than either Protestant or Catholic.

Here the attitudes of these same 18-30-year-olds regarding the existence of “God” are compared to older folks.

What are the reasons for the rise of the nones? Please see Part 2.

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The Revolt of the Nones, Part 2

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